This study aims at assessing the size of Finland’s grey economy and use of cash in the grey and criminal economy. International studies on Finland and other Nordic countries using the MIMIC multivariate method have suggested rather high GDP shares of the grey economy (14–17%). To clarify this picture, we rely on 28,682 official Finnish tax audits performed during 2003–2009. While the tax audits, which are organized by sector, provide the most reliable available measure of tax evasion, the shares are biased upwards as tax audits tend to focus on companies subject to denunciation or other financial red flags rather than a random sampling. As the magnitude of the selection bias can only be estimated by investigating all firms, this study is limited to estimating the maximum size of Finland’s grey economy.
We examine the grey economy’s extent by each sector independently, using both corporate accounts (production) and household consumption (demand) statistics. In this way, we verify our estimate of the size of the grey economy from two perspectives. The study also attempts to measure the use of cash in Finland’s grey economy. Although the results on the size of the grey economy should only be considered as indicative, the maximum size of the concealed grey and illegal economy appears to be only in the range of 1– 2 % of GDP. Based on these estimates, the use of cash in the grey economy would be well below €1.5 billion. Compared to estimated overall cash use in Finland, this translates to 10 % of total cash spending at most. Keywords: grey economy size, tax evasion, tax inspections, cash usage
Kari Takala (2022). The Use of Cash in the Finnish Grey Economy. Journal of International Economics and Finance. 2(1), 1-36.